Don’t kid yourself, Donald Trump could still win.
The man who was running even before the first debate has had a bad run since. Still it’s never over till it’s over. Hillary Clinton leads but doesn’t break 50% in polling when third party candidates are included. And more leaks from WikiLeaks await, as undecided voters are still making up their minds.
But the greatest wild card of all is how the highly negative tone of this year’s campaign will affect turnout. As the race enters its homestretch it seems as if Trump has made a specific calculation. Namely, to drag the overall tone down so much, and his opponent with it, that most voters generally would be turned off from voting at all. Then, he would rely on the greater intensity of backing from his core supporters (I could “shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters”) to prevail on election day.
So what would a come-from-behind Trump win look like? And what role if any could energy and environmental policy play in the final definition of this race? Here are the ABCs of a Trump victory:
• A for Alienation of progressives.
• B for Big Base turnout.
• C for Conservatives come home.
Let’s take a look at each in turn
